Tom Cruise’s R-rated environmental satire Digger is now tracking toward a $245 million theatrical loss, according to knowledgeable sources. That would make it one of the biggest box office flops of the year—and potentially of all time.
The weekend-two slide
The film opened softly with $8 million domestically and $20 million globally. Instead of recovering, it dropped 60% in its second weekend, reaching $14.4 million domestically and $35.3 million globally. Warner Bros. had initially been bracing for a $150 million to $200 million loss, but the updated write-down is larger.
At its current trajectory, Digger is expected to finish near $50 million globally. It needs roughly $350 million globally to break even by source estimates, because theaters keep about half of ticket sales. Warner Bros. has pushed back with a $300 million break-even figure—either way, the projected final is far short.
Where the budget went
Warner Bros. greenlit Digger at $125 million, but production overruns pushed the cost to $160 million to $180 million. Marketing added about $100 million. Those figures exclude award spending; a typical Oscar campaign for a star-and-auteur project like this could run around $15 million. Given the film’s frosty reviews, that campaign may be scaled back. Warner Bros. even ran social spots telling audiences to “decide for yourself.”
Endorsements from Anne Hathaway, Jane Fonda, Guillermo del Toro and Mandy Patinkin have not reversed the trend.
What it means for the business
Most films do not earn a profit from theatrical alone, but box office remains the signal that sets downstream TV, pay-one and streaming deals. Profitability for Digger is further delayed because Tom Cruise’s deal gives him a percentage of revenue before Warner Bros. recoups its costs.
The film was Warner Bros.’ last standalone release before its merger with Paramount, and it extends a weak 2026: no Warner Bros. film has crossed $100 million domestically this year. Co-chiefs Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy departed last Friday as the film opened, after a strong 2025 run with hits including Sinners, A Minecraft Movie and Weapons. The next major hope is Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part III, due in December.
The read for media buyers
- A 60% second-weekend drop from a weak opening is a collapse, not a bump.
- Break-even models must account for the roughly 50% exhibitor share of ticket sales.
- Downstream licensing, not theatrical rentals, will now determine how much Warner Bros. recovers.
Source: Variety
