Disney and Marvel Studios’ “Avengers: Endgame Encore” is heading for No. 1 on a crowded North American weekend, with industry estimates projecting a $26 million opening for the re-release. The modified version, which adds new post-credit scenes to set up “Avengers: Doomsday,” grossed $11.2 million on Friday from 3,060 locations.
The weekend is less a single story than a pricing-and-positioning stress test for a catalogue blockbuster re-expansion, a horror sequel, an awards-angled drama and an original animated family film.
The re-release math
The “Endgame Encore” result is not just a nostalgia data point. The source estimates it will lift the film’s lifetime domestic gross to $884 million and leave it within $100 million of the all-time global box office record held by “Avatar.” For exhibitors, that means a Marvel catalogue title can anchor a weekend while new films jostle for screens.
A $20 million race with opposite profit paths
Sony/TriStar’s “Resident Evil” holds No. 2 in its second weekend with an estimated $23.8 million, down 60% from its $60 million debut. But the sharper marketing lesson sits at No. 3.
A24’s “Primetime,” starring Robert Pattinson as “To Catch a Predator” host Chris Hansen in a surrealist dramatization, is projected to open around $20.5 million from 2,874 locations. Paramount’s “Heart of the Beast,” a Brad Pitt survival thriller, is close behind at an estimated $20 million from 3,435 locations.
- “Primetime” carries a reported $15 million production budget, making a $20.5 million start a viable theatrical outcome.
- “Heart of the Beast” has an $80 million budget, so the same gross leaves a much longer path to profit.
- Audience scores invert the budget picture: “Primetime” earned a B CinemaScore, while “Heart of the Beast” earned an A- and 95% audience on Rotten Tomatoes.
The source also notes that “Endgame Encore” may be peeling general audiences away from newer titles such as “Resident Evil.” For distributors, that is the core tension of a re-release: it adds high-value catalogue supply, but it may compress the opening window for originals.
Why “Forgotten Island” is the warning light
Universal/DreamWorks’ “Forgotten Island” earned $4.3 million Friday from 3,548 locations and is heading for an $11.5 million start, one of the lowest ever for DreamWorks Animation. That is despite a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score, an A CinemaScore and a PostTrak “definite recommend” of 82%.
With an $80 million budget, the film would need a theatrical multiple beyond the 4x of “The Wild Robot” just to approach break-even. The source notes that “Forgotten Island” still has a staggered overseas release and little family competition in October, but original theatrical animation continues to struggle post-COVID.
The takeaway for planners: reception scores measure demand quality, not the size of the available audience. A $20 million opening is a win for the right budget and a warning for the wrong one.
Source: TheWrap
