“Advertising is the future (of growth),” Ampere Analysis executive director and co-founder Guy Bisson said at MIPCOM. His forecast: by 2029, streaming services will make more money from ad tiers than from premium subscriptions.
The crossover is already visible
Since 2021, ad-supported subscriptions have kept climbing while premium has slipped in North America and Europe. Ampere expects ad-tier revenue to reach about $60 billion (€53.6bn) by 2030, compared with $55 billion for premium. In Western markets, the firm says, more subscribers will be seeing ads on global streaming platforms than not during 2026.
Unscripted becomes a commercial format
That shift is altering programming decisions. “The type of content that works has changed,” Bisson said. Unscripted is attractive because it can carry more advertising minutes per hour. Between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026, Apple was the only platform in Ampere’s comparison to grow its volume of scripted content, as it positioned itself as the home of premium drama. Disney+ reached 50 per cent unscripted content hours in 2026, and HBO Max reached 65 per cent.
On US streaming services in September 2026, unscripted viewers saw up to 24 per cent more ad minutes per hour than scripted viewers. Shorter formats allow more ad breaks.
The business signals are strengthening
Ad loads are rising quickly. Netflix increased its US advertising volume by 90 per cent between January and September 2026, while Pluto TV raised its volume by a little more than 60 per cent. Pricing is also pushing viewers toward ad plans. Ampere’s benchmarks:
- Ad-tier revenue is projected at about $60 billion by 2030, versus $55 billion for premium.
- Unscripted share has reached 50 per cent on Disney+ and 65 per cent on HBO Max.
- US ad volume rose 90 per cent at Netflix and just over 60 per cent at Pluto TV between January and September 2026.
- Upgrading from ad tier to ad-free costs 1.8x at Netflix in France and 1.5x at HBO Max and Paramount+, with the highest multiples in Germany, Italy and Spain.
Ampere notes that ad-tier viewers watch less often, so local ad-supported broadcasters such as TF1, France Télévisions, M6 in France and RTVE in Spain become useful partners for global streamers. Netflix expanded a content deal with Spain’s AtresMedia, following a similar TF1 deal in France. Disney in August struck a deal with TikTok to let creators use its IP for short-form content.
Source: advanced-television.com
