Variety’s Oct. 22 prediction update has done something rare: it has made a documentary part of the best picture conversation. A24’s ‘You Can See Everything,’ which tracks Elizabeth Holmes during the 34 days before she reported to prison and continues filming after, opened to $15 million over the weekend. On Metacritic it sits at 99, on Rotten Tomatoes at 98%, on Letterboxd at 4.7 out of 5, and on IMDb at 9.4.
“What if the first documentary nominated for best picture goes all the way to the top prize?” Variety asks.
Why the submission list matters
In 98 years, no documentary has ever landed a best picture nomination. A24 is not treating this as a niche release. The film has been submitted for best picture, directing for Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, production design, cinematography, costume design, film editing, makeup and hairstyling, sound, and original score.
Variety confirmed that Amanda Seyfried will be campaigned in supporting actress. She appears as herself while reprising her Emmy-winning Holmes role from ‘The Dropout.’ A nomination would be her second following ‘Mank.’ Christopher Abbott is eligible in supporting actor for playing Billy Evans; Fielder will not submit as a performer.
Where the numbers stand
- Projected film nominations: ‘The Odyssey’ 15; ‘Dune: Part Three’ 11; ‘La Bola Negra’ 10; ‘Project Hail Mary’ 8; ‘The Invite’ 6.
- Projected studio nominations: A24 17; Universal Pictures 15; Netflix 13; Warner Bros. 12; Amazon MGM Studios and Searchlight 8.
‘The Odyssey’ remains the predicted best picture winner, but A24’s 17 projected nominations make the studio’s slate a real counterweight. A documentary that competes across crafts categories is no longer just an awards curiosity; it becomes a portfolio play.
The marketing calendar behind the race
Awards season is also an audience and revenue window. The Oscar shortlist announcement lands Dec. 15, with nominations voting Jan. 11-15 and the official nominations on Jan. 21. The 99th Oscars air March 14 on ABC and in more than 200 territories. For media planners, those dates are precise moments to align paid campaigns, catalogue push notifications and creator partnerships.
For entertainment marketers, this documentary tests whether awards campaigns can convert critical heat into commercial longevity. A nonfiction film with a $15 million opening is a signal that documentary rights may be undervalued by theatrical and streaming buyers.
Separately, the Golden Globes denied Lionsgate’s bid to place its Michael Jackson biopic in comedy or musical categories, so the film will compete in drama for six slots against ‘The Odyssey’ and others. Supporting races are genre-neutral, so Colman Domingo and Nia Long are unaffected.
Source: Variety
