This weekend’s North American box office is shaping up as a contest between a low-cost book adaptation and a very expensive original. Amazon MGM’s Verity, based on Colleen Hoover’s bestseller, is projected to open at $30 million to $35 million from 3,510 screens. That would give Anne Hathaway her third No. 1 opening of 2026, after The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey. Directed by Michael Showalter, the film also stars Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett.
Warner Bros.’ Digger, Tom Cruise and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s R-rated environmental satire, is tracking at $12 million to $15 million from 3,300 North American screens. At those levels, the film could be one of the year’s largest financial disappointments.
Why the gap comes down to budgets
Verity was produced for $40 million. Digger was greenlit at $125 million, and four sources told Variety the budget climbed to $160 million to $180 million after production went over schedule; Warner Bros. disputes those figures. Analysts cited in the report say a film of that size would need a debut near $40 million to justify its cost.
That makes this more than a popularity contest. A mid-tier opening for Verity can recover costs relatively quickly, while the same opening for Digger would be a serious shortfall.
Hoover adaptations are becoming a repeatable business
The report points to a pattern for Colleen Hoover’s screen adaptations:
- It Ends With Us: $50 million debut, $350 million global gross
- Reminders of Him: $17 million debut
- Regretting You: $13.6 million debut
- Verity: projected $30 million-$35 million debut from a $40 million budget
These films have low budgets and built-in book audiences, which makes them low-risk bets for studios.
What it means for the two studios
For Amazon MGM, Verity would continue a rebound after Masters of the Universe flopped with $113 million globally against a $200 million budget. The studio’s spring release Project Hail Mary earned $684 million globally.
For Warner Bros., Digger lands just before Paramount’s acquisition of the studio is set to close next week. It would extend a difficult run that has included The Bride! and Supergirl, after a strong 2025 for the studio.
Bad reviews, different exposure
Reviews are mixed-to-negative on both titles. Variety’s Guy Lodge called Verity “listless” and an “unintentionally funny tale.” Warner Bros. has started using negative words about Digger—including “unpleasant” and “baffling”—in its own advertising, telling audiences to “decide for yourself.”
For release planners, the takeaway is simple: compare the opening-weekend range with the production budget, not with the top-line gross alone. A $35 million opening means something very different at a $40 million cost than at a $160 million cost.
Source: Variety
