Lionsgate’s Thanksgiving release, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, has arrived on tracking with a domestic opening floor of $60 million, and rival distributors see a path to a 3-day beyond $70 million. Tracking is directional, not a settlement, but the early number gives the sixth Hunger Games film a clear upward turn from the chapter that came before it.
Francis Lawrence returns to direct. The prequel opens Nov. 20 and goes back to the morning of the 50th Hunger Games, 24 years before the events of the first film. Joseph Zada plays a young Haymitch Abernathy, Jesse Plemons plays a young Plutarch Heavensbee, and reported cameos from Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson add to the event pitch.
Lionsgate comes in with recent proof of a big launch: Michael opened the early summer to $97.2M U.S. and $218.8M worldwide. A Thanksgiving hit would give the studio bookends on the year.
The Songbirds comparison
The previous prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, opened to $44.6M domestically and legged out to $166.3M in North America and $394M worldwide. A $60M-$70M start would represent a meaningful step up, though it would still sit far below Catching Fire’s franchise-best $158M domestic opening from 2013.
The franchise context remains strong: five films have grossed more than $3.4 billion globally, and the novels have sold more than 100 million copies across 52 languages.
Demand signals behind the tracking
- Trailer: 109M views in the first 24 hours, the second most-watched Lionsgate trailer behind Michael.
- Book: 1.5M copies sold worldwide in week one, with 1.2M in the U.S., more than twice Ballad’s first week and over three times Mockingjay.
- First choice: Women under 25 score on par with Wicked and roughly 40% above Songbirds & Snakes; overall first choice runs higher than Wicked, Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 and on par with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
Why the holiday corridor matters
For exhibition, a strong start from the prequel matters because North America is pushing toward a potential $10 billion domestic year. But the comparison set is brutal: the 2024 Thanksgiving five-day stretch set a record with $424.9M, and 2025’s five-day haul was the fourth best ever at $292.8M. A $60M floor would not recreate those highs, but it gives Lionsgate a solid anchor going into the corridor.
For media planners, the useful early signal is the demo shape. Women under 25 are the strongest first-choice group, but men under 25 are not far behind, which suggests the campaign can lean on the arena stakes rather than nostalgia alone.
The number to watch now is conversion. Strong first-choice scores and a giant trailer number are awareness signals; they become box office only if they turn into advance sales in the two weeks before Nov. 20.
Source: Deadline
