The 2026 domestic box office has crossed a psychological threshold, and Wall Street is treating theatres as a growth story again. Four franchise releases—Spider-Man: Brand New Day, The Odyssey, Toy Story 5 and Obsession—helped push receipts past $8 billion, up 20% from a year ago, according to B. Riley Securities analyst Drew Crum.
The numbers behind the rebound
Theatrical momentum has flowed straight into exhibitor stocks. The theatre-related names Crum covers are up nearly 70% so far this year, and last week’s $84 million in ticket sales added another supportive data point.
Analyst price targets are moving in the same direction:
- Crum raised Imax to $64 from $61, and now models third-quarter revenue at $170 million, up from $146 million.
- MoffettNathanson’s Robert Fishman lifted Cinemark to $41 and raised his 2026 revenue estimate to $3.63 billion.
- Fishman expects full-year domestic ticket sales to hit $10.1 billion, with the fourth quarter at $2.4 billion, up 8% year on year.
Why this matters for the screen economy
Fishman said the “structural health of the box office has course-corrected” after a rocky post-COVID stretch. Three forces are doing the heavy lifting: the reversal of pandemic-era exclusivity windows, a rebound in studio output, and the growth of premium large formats, which lift both attendance and how much people are willing to pay.
For media planners and entertainment marketers, that framing is actionable. The recovery is not evenly distributed; large-format, event-driven moviegoing is leading, not just the number of tickets but the value of each visit.
The sequel question
The analysts diverge slightly on what happens next. Crum warns 2027 faces a tough comparison and says “we see limited upside and thus remain selective, with Imax as our only buy-rated name.” Imax forecasts third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $95 million, up from an earlier $73 million estimate, with Dune: Part Three as a fourth-quarter catalyst.
Fishman is more optimistic. He raised his 2027 ticket-sales forecast to $10.1 billion from $9.9 billion and sees 2028 reaching $10.5 billion—just 8% below the 2019 pre-COVID level—supported by titles such as Avengers: Secret Wars, Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, Man of Tomorrow, Frozen III and the sequel to A Minecraft Movie.
The immediate test arrives with third-quarter earnings in the coming weeks. Crum expects them to be “outstanding,” and the holiday slate will set the tone for whether 2027 starts from strength or from a high base that is difficult to beat.
Source: TheWrap
