Disney and Marvel Studios are putting a remastered version of the second-highest-grossing film in history back into theaters this weekend, and the business question is not whether it will sell tickets but how much of the multiplex oxygen it will take from three well-reviewed new releases.
The weekend math
“Avengers: Endgame Encore” is projected to make at least $25 million domestically, with independent trackers and exhibition sources saying it has a shot at clearing $30 million. If it does, it would pass the $30.2 million opening of Disney’s 2011 3D reissue of “The Lion King” and set a new pre-inflation record for a re-release.
That puts the Marvel event ahead of the second frame of Sony’s “Resident Evil,” currently projected at $24 million after a $60.1 million opening. A24’s “Primetime,” Universal/DreamWorks’ “Forgotten Island” and Paramount’s “Heart of the Beast” are all projected to open in the high teens, with a chance at $20 million.
- “Primetime”: $15 million budget, 90% Rotten Tomatoes score, 2,800 locations.
- “Heart of the Beast”: around $80 million budget, 88% Rotten Tomatoes score.
- “Forgotten Island”: around $80 million budget, 100% Rotten Tomatoes score from 48 reviews.
Why the reissue is more than a nostalgia play
Disney is using the “Encore” reissue to start its “Infinity Vision” campaign, which will promote premium formats for both this release and the winter’s “Avengers: Doomsday” beyond Imax. Imax will not support “Doomsday” because of a prior exclusivity window for Warner Bros.’ “Dune: Part Three.” That leaves Dolby, 4DX, D-Box and in-house premium large formats a chance to break the “Imax or bust” habit.
Interest is not just about seeing Thanos again. The reissue contains new mid- and post-credit teasers for “Doomsday,” which has already passed $50 million in presales and is expected to challenge the $360 million domestic opening record of “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and the $1.22 billion global opening record “Endgame” set seven years ago.
Separating the new films
A24 is trying to widen its box-office footprint after “Marty Supreme” became the studio’s record success last winter. “Primetime” has Robert Pattinson as the draw; its trailer racked up 48 million YouTube views and the film is being treated as a likely Oscar contender. But without a holiday corridor, it will be hard to match “Marty Supreme’s” $96 million domestic total. The split to watch is whether Pattinson’s cinephile fanbase carries beyond coastal audiences under 45.
“Heart of the Beast” is aimed more at rural states and conservative moviegoers. If it opens in the high teens, it would land above the $14.1 million launch of “Dog,” the Channing Tatum combat-dog film, but it carries a far higher budget and needs substantial post-release buzz to earn meaningful ROI.
“Forgotten Island” is the weekend’s riskiest commercial story. Original animation has struggled even with strong reviews; Pixar’s “Hoppers” opened to $45.3 million on a $150 million budget and finished with $389.6 million globally. “Forgotten Island” has half that budget and could open at a third of “Hoppers’” opening. Its advantage is a clear runway until “The Cat in the Hat” arrives in early November.
For media planners and exhibition professionals, the weekend is a live test of whether event re-releases can out-pull new prestige product and whether non-Imax premium formats can turn a Marvel release into a durable habit.
Source: TheWrap
