The fight for a federal production incentive now has a specific economic projection behind it. A study commissioned by the Motion Picture Association and produced by Olsberg•SPI estimates that U.S. film and television production spending could roughly double by 2035 if Washington enacted a transferable federal tax credit aimed at qualified labor costs.
The report was released Tuesday as the new U.S. Film and Television Production Coalition begins a full-scale lobbying push. The coalition includes the MPA, the Writers Guild, DGA, SAG-AFTRA, IATSE and the Teamsters, plus actor Jon Voight, who is credited with helping gain President Trump’s public support.
The modeled incentive
The study assumes a federal credit with these features:
- A 20% transferable tax credit on qualified labor expenditures, including above-the-line talent such as actors and directors.
- A 5% uplift for independent productions.
- A 5% uplift for productions in FEMA-declared disaster areas.
Under that design, the study projects about $125 billion in additional U.S. production spending between 2027 and 2035. Annual U.S. production spending would reach $38.7 billion by 2035, compared with $16.7 billion without the incentive, and the model adds roughly 143,500 jobs per year.
Why this is more than a Hollywood ask
The federal layer matters because many state programs are limited in the labor costs they cover. The proposed inclusion of above-the-line salaries would be a significant change for the U.S. market and bring it closer to international competitors such as the United Kingdom. For studios and streamers, that shape of the credit may influence whether a project pencils out in Georgia, California, Texas, Louisiana or abroad.
MPA chairman and CEO Charles Rivkin called the proposal “a gamechanger for our industry,” pointing to jobs across all 50 states. Teamsters President Sean O’Brien tied the push directly to production location: “America should be producing American movies. And American workers should be doing the work.”
The legislative path
Reps. Brian Jack (R-GA) and Laura Friedman (D-CA) are leading the bipartisan effort, according to TheWrap. Key Republican members expected to shape the bill in the House Ways and Means Committee include Nathaniel Moran of Texas, Mike Carey of Ohio and Nicole Malliotakis of New York, while California Democrats Judy Chu and Linda Sanchez are also gathering support.
Friedman framed the stakes around global competition: “Sixty-five countries have decided it’s worth competing for film and television production. The United States hasn’t.”
Details are still being negotiated, including possible uplifts for TV shows that relocate to the U.S. and for rural-area production. Coalition backers are targeting passage before the end of the year, with the post-election lame-duck period seen as a likely window.
What to watch
For ScreenStat readers, the immediate signal is not a box office or ratings change. It is a supply-side policy moment that could shift production volume and location decisions over the next decade. Watch whether above-the-line eligibility survives negotiations, because that is the feature that most changes the incentive math for studios and platforms. Also track whether a relocation bonus for TV shows is included; that would directly affect international production hubs competing for U.S.-facing content.
Source: TheWrap
