Warner Bros. opens Digger on Oct. 2 with a rare and expensive proposition: an original, star-driven comedy built around Tom Cruise as an oil tycoon. Early tracking puts the Alejandro González Iñárritu film at $12 million to $15 million in North America, down from earlier projections of $18 million to $20 million.
That is a fraction of what the economics require. The project was greenlit at $125 million, but sources say it climbed to $160 million to $180 million after overruns; Warner Bros. disputes that figure. Add roughly $100 million in marketing and the break-even is estimated near $350 million globally by rival executives and knowledgeable sources. The studio puts it at $300 million. Either way, a debut in the low teens puts extraordinary pressure on word of mouth and overseas markets.
Why this matters for the slate
Warner Bros. is not absorbing this from a position of strength. In 2025 the studio had seven films cross $100 million domestically and took 21% of the North American market. This year it has no $100 million domestic grossers and commands 6% of the market, even as the overall box office enjoys its best summer since COVID.
The timing raises the stakes beyond the P&L. Paramount Skydance is expected to close its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery imminently, so Digger is also an argument about strategy under new ownership. Warner Bros. has defended its slate, saying bold swings on originals serve the business; rivals ask whether the budgets match the risk.
There is a recent template inside the studio: One Battle After Another opened to $22 million, reached $213 million globally and still lost $100 million theatrically. It won the best picture Oscar, which is real value, but it did not solve the theatrical ledger.
The 2026 losses stack up:
- The Bride! is expected to lose $100 million theatrically after a $24 million global total against a $90 million budget.
- Supergirl grossed $126 million globally against $170 million and is set to lose $80 million.
- The End of Oak Street is estimated to lose $25 million to $40 million after a $121 million global gross on an $85 million budget.
- Practical Magic 2 is running out of steam at $92 million on a $75 million budget; one source sees a $5 million profit, while others estimate a $30 million to $40 million theatrical loss.
Even the wins have been modest. Wuthering Heights leads with $242 million and about $40 million in profit, while Mortal Kombat II and The Mummy are each projected to deliver around $10 million.
Star power has a ceiling
Iñárritu’s record is real: The Revenant made $533 million globally and Birdman cost $18 million and grossed $103 million. But his last theatrical release was a decade ago, and Cruise is coming off diminishing returns in the final two Mission: Impossible films. Analyst Jeff Bock puts it plainly: “His name alone isn’t going to sell it.”
Cruise’s deal also delays profitability because he gets first-dollar gross, meaning he is paid a share of revenue before the studio recoups costs. That makes the downstream math harder even if the film finds an audience in ancillary windows.
What to watch
The model for a creator or marketer is the same one the studio is now testing: break-even must be priced before the package is greenlit, not after tracking weakens. A star-plus-auteur bet still has to clear a defined global threshold, and downstream revenue—digital rental, streaming and TV licensing—has to be part of that plan from day one.
For Warner Bros., Dune: Part III is the December rebound candidate. But before Arrakis, Digger has to prove that a black comedy with an A-list star can still find a broad theatrical audience.
Source: Variety
