Five weeks out, the pre-release board is moving in two directions at once. Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is holding a nine-digit domestic opening pace, while Paramount’s Ebenezer is turning into a real family-holiday option. Universal’s Focker In-Law has entered the market without upsetting expectations.
Sunrise on the Reaping: $100M+ still the base case
The hot start last week was not a blip. Tracking signals remain strongest with Gen Z and Millennial audiences, and social media review blurbs are doing their job before the full embargo lifts closer to opening day. The forecast pinpoint sits at $116 million, with a high end at $140 million, and few data points suggest a sub nine-digit opening is likely.
That matters because a $100M+ debut would pass Michael at $97.2 million to become Lionsgate’s biggest opening of 2026. It would also give the studio a clearer comp for marketing spend and opening-week inventory.
Ebenezer firms up; Focker In-Law starts sales
Johnny Depp’s Ebenezer is steadily showing more potential as an early holiday performer. Pre-sales remain sturdy, and in sample markets the film is pacing close to Karate Kid: Legends, which makes family turnout the swing factor to watch.
Focker In-Law tickets went on sale this week and are pacing on par with the expectations baked into previous forecasts. For now, the Thanksgiving corridor is holding its shape.
What to do with this
- Hunger Games: Work a $100M-to-$140M planning range; do not plan to the $116M pinpoint.
- Ebenezer: Watch family pre-sales against Karate Kid: Legends as the best early tell.
- Focker In-Law: Use early sales as a stability check, not a breakout signal.
For media planners, the discipline is simple: pre-release tracking gives you a corridor, not a contract. Revisions are likely as the market moves, and the full review embargo lift will be the next major signal.
