Los Angeles’ on-location production machine lost more ground in the third quarter. FilmLA counted 4,171 shoot days across the region, a 4.8% drop from the same period last year and nearly 29% below the five-year average. California’s expanded production incentive may have kept the fall from being sharper, but it has not yet reversed the decline that began with the 2023 strikes.
Credits are doing real work, in the right genres
The clearest proof is in scripted content. Incentivized productions accounted for 40% of all on-location scripted shoot days, double the share from a year earlier. Television comedies delivered the biggest category gain: shoot days jumped from 79 a year ago to 193 this quarter, aided by shows including Apple TV+’s “Shrinking” and HBO’s “I Love LA.”
But the subsidy does not touch every part of the market. Commercial shoots cannot qualify for these state tax credits, and that segment fell 16% year over year to 562 shoot days. Against the five-year average, commercial shoot days are down 41%.
“Where the tax credit applies, it’s working to bring productions back to Los Angeles and put local crews to work,” said FilmLA CEO Denise Gutches. “Still, overall production remains far below where Los Angeles needs it to be, and crews and businesses across the region are feeling it.”
The next two reports will test the pipeline
California recently approved 35 films expected to generate a combined 1,049 shoot days statewide. Those productions have 180 days to begin shooting, and the ones that choose Los Angeles County will show up in FilmLA’s next two quarterly reports. The study also has known blind spots: it does not capture qualified projects shot entirely on LA soundstages, or animated work such as DreamWorks Animation’s “Donkey.”
What media buyers and planners should watch
For our readers, the commercial figure is the most direct demand signal. A double-digit fall in non-incentivized commercial shoots points to tighter ad production budgets, even as scripted work stabilizes.
- Watch commercial shoot-day counts as a leading indicator for ad production spend.
- Treat the next two FilmLA reports as a test of whether the 35-film pipeline lands in LA County.
- Compare incentivized and non-incentivized categories separately; the headline number mixes very different markets.
One year after California raised its film incentive cap from $330 million to $700 million, the data suggests the program is cushioning the fall rather than restoring growth. Mayor Karen Bass has said her administration will keep “cutting red tape, lowering filming costs, and fighting to bring back productions.” She is also pushing to uncap the state incentive and supporting a proposed federal production tax credit.
Source: TheWrap
