The Motion Picture Association is putting a specific number on its campaign for a federal production incentive: a 20% tax credit would double U.S. film and TV production by 2032, according to an Olsberg SPI report released Tuesday.
The headline projections
With a federal credit, the study projects production spending would reach $34.7 billion by 2032. Without one, spending would settle at $16.9 billion. The same model estimates the credit would create about 143,500 production jobs per year, generate an additional $125.3 billion in cumulative production activity from 2027 through 2035, and deliver $249.1 billion in total economic impact over that period.
- Production spending: $34.7 billion with the incentive, $16.9 billion without it by 2032.
- Jobs: About 143,500 production jobs added per year.
- Added activity: $125.3 billion in production spending from 2027–2035.
- Total economic impact: $249.1 billion over the same period.
Where the market-share math gets aggressive
The model assumes the U.S. would reassert a commanding position in global production. ProdPro data cited by the MPA puts the U.S. at 34% of global film production and 42% of TV production today. Without a federal incentive, the report assumes those shares slip to 25% for film and 29% for TV by 2035. With a 20% credit, the report assumes the U.S. captures 65% of global production spending.
That 65% assumption is the one to watch. The report backs it partly with a 2015 FilmLA study that found 65% of 109 films in its sample were made in the U.S. It also examined 20 films from MPA member companies and concluded a 20% credit would make 16 of them competitive to shoot domestically, rather than in a foreign locale.
The underlying logic is simple: production follows incentives. Since 2017, the number of national, state and provincial film incentives around the world has risen from 86 to 121. Ireland, Australia, South Africa, Eastern Europe and South Korea have built crews, stages and tax regimes to attract work that once defaulted to Los Angeles or New York.
The report does not model how other countries would react to a U.S. federal credit. If rival hubs raise their own incentives in response, the projected market-share shift could be softer than the headline numbers suggest.
Why this matters for the U.S. bill
The MPA is campaigning alongside Hollywood unions, and President Trump endorsed the federal credit idea last month. A bill is expected to be introduced on Capitol Hill by the end of this month. The proposal has not been finalized, so the study does not estimate a return per taxpayer dollar. That will fall to the Joint Committee on Taxation, which will score the cost to the U.S. government.
MPA CEO Charles Rivkin called the proposal “a gamechanger for our industry.” He framed the jobs impact broadly, pointing to cast and crew as well as “set builders, construction workers, truck drivers, caterers, and more.”
For media planners and content buyers, the incentive matters because it could change the volume, location and pacing of U.S.-originated production. A stronger domestic pipeline would give streaming services and networks more predictability in release schedules, while a market-share fight between countries would keep production costs and location choices fluid.
Source: Variety
